Update: I played with the settings and made some more measurements. Apologies for the lengthy post below, but...
tl;dr version: I'm now a happy bunny.
It's still a bit of a PITA to measure the input lag, so I wouldn't say that I have extensive and high-quality data, but I think the results are at least fit for
my purpose
(When your camera only records for 184 ms and an event can last for half of that, it's surprisingly difficult to nail the timing!)
I used
@gyrtenudre's numlock LED trick and watched the downshifts in the HUD, and it worked beautifully!
I've realised that I normally have three gear indicators on screen (ROFL) with my normal HUD - the circular one, the one in the essentials app, and Sidekick. The first of those was always the most responsive - often the other two updated one or even two monitor frames later (tho occasionally all three changed together). For one set of tests I also had the in-car dashboard gear indicator visible, and it matched the circular one. I also learned along the way something I should probably have realised years ago: LCD panels still update from top to bottom, just like an old CRT...
I only made one successful measurement with my original setup: vsync on, MAXIMUM_FRAME_LATENCY=0. Input lag came out as
92 ms, which is consistent with my original wheel-movement measurement. Given that I have a 60 Hz monitor, I've convinced myself that every input-lag measurement I made must intrinsically have a +/- 8 ms variation (since my button-pressing isn't synced with the display in any way). So a bunch of measurements would be required to map this out but yeah, life's too short and that lag is way too long to ever go back there!
With MAXIMUM_FRAME_LATENCY=1, input lag was
50 - 60 ms (3 meas. made). Big improvement, almost for free...
MAXIMUM_FRAME_LATENCY=1, vsync off and RTSS scanline sync=1000: lag was
34 - 40 ms (just 2 meas.). At this point I was all "yayy!!" and started to drive, to see if I could feel the difference. Placebo or not, I feel I was more consistent, catching slides way more easily, keeping the car much closer to the limit... Awesome.
MAXIMUM_FRAME_LATENCY=1, vsync off and RTSS sync off, so ~200 fps: lag was
17 - 32 ms (4 meas.). Even better, but maybe not worth the noise the GPU fans started to make
I also made some further measurements with other scanline sync positions: -1, 1100, 1. (I now realise that -1 and 1100 are probably about the same on my 1080p screen.) They were all basically indistinguishable with my sparse data, and every measurement fell into the range 34 - 47 ms.
So... mind blown. I still can't believe that my default setup was so horrifically awful. It makes no sense to me that AC would do this out of the box. Perhaps ACC does the same - will try that another time (I rarely use it right now).
Btw, as a sanity check, I also tried driving with vsync on and MAXIMUM_FRAME_LATENCY=HUGE (like 30 or something) and as I suspected, the FFB felt stupidly laggy. I know of no good reason (let me know if you do) for the physics and FFB to be in sync with the graphics, but it seems clear that they are...
Needless to say I'm driving now with RTSS active. I've beaten a few of my PBs already and I can't get over how much easier it is to catch slides.
Thanks, everyone, for the suggestions, questions, and prompting - if I hadn't gone back and shown myself how bad my setup truly was, I'd still be driving it (and cursing as the aliens lapped me again!)