Ferrari hasn't had a rookie driver since 1972. Granted, Leclerc won't be a rookie next season, but it shows they don't tend to take chances on unproven talent. I say he needs at least 3 years in F1 before being promoted like that. Red Bull seems more likely to take that risk, so we might get RIC to Ferrari, and Leclerc taking his old seat.
But, we also have to think about the huge regulation changes for 2021. I think a lot of drivers are looking for contracts that extend to 2021, and the market will be very wide open after that. Leclerc to Ferrari in 2021? Much more probably. And who knows...in 3 years time we may see retirements from some of the older drivers. Certainly Alonso and Raikkonen will be out, but we may also lose Vettel, Hamilton, and perhaps Grosjean, Hulkenburg, and Perez by then.
But, we also have to think about the huge regulation changes for 2021. I think a lot of drivers are looking for contracts that extend to 2021, and the market will be very wide open after that. Leclerc to Ferrari in 2021? Much more probably. And who knows...in 3 years time we may see retirements from some of the older drivers. Certainly Alonso and Raikkonen will be out, but we may also lose Vettel, Hamilton, and perhaps Grosjean, Hulkenburg, and Perez by then.