Hehe, they're certainly not good in recent outings that's for sure! I'd like to think the Drivatars in Forza 1 (2005) were a lot better because I was on the team that developed them but maybe my rose tints are too strong ;-) We split the problem into 3 at the time: 1) learning to control the car based on a full physics simulation 2) learning racing lines and 3) "race craft". It was the racecraft aspect we didn't crack at all and that was 100% programmed. That's still the biggest problem and I don't think we'll see any great strides there for a while TBH
No, maybe the system is not that bad...
under the hood.
To me, personally, one of the big mistakes in the concept is that drivatars adapt to the set difficulty. I can get one of my fastest friends, who I can beat 1 time out of 10 (if that) on New Driver difficulty and trash him or at the Unbeatable difficulty and then still beat him, unless he's in the Top3 drivers where at least the pole driver usually drives far ahead of the field (and no qualifying to start next to him).
Also the way the campaign races are set up in the Forza games - 3 laps, start in 16th place - makes all players drive in completely unrealistic aggressive ways. Then there is the rewind option and the dynamic racing line that are used by most players, so the differences in braking points, throttle and lines through corners are minimal. Having a mode where you
train your drivatar
with those unrealistic equalizers turned off, putting you in random conditions (FWD, RWD, AWD, light car, heavy car, modern slicks, bias ply road tires, aero cars, low power momentum cars, open wheelers, against 1 strong opponent against many slow opponents, on different tracks, in the dry or the rain,etc.) could improve them a lot imo. As an incentive you could earn more drivatar credits the longer you have trained your drivatar. Also, the campaign races would need to be redesigned to take advantage of that.
The way the game is structured now, it's impossible to know if Drivatars are actually terrible or just terrible because they're not really given a chance to be any good.
PS. that tire degradation and temps as well as pit stops altogether are a non-issue in the current FM games is also not helping.