Alonso and Ferrari 'can' win it next year, but I sadly think it's stacked heavily against them.
Ferrari capitalised with consistency and some great driving from Fernando when Red Bull and Mclaren were faultering and having reliability issues. Ferrari will unlikely be afforded that luxury again next year.
Fernando himself has said that he'll find it difficult to perform to that level ever again in his career. Not impossible, but unlikely. He produced the fewest mistakes of anyone, and those he did make arguably didn't cost him anything.
And finally the car. Ferrari rolled the dice with the F2012, and it's most innovative concept didn't work. Worse still, the wind tunnel was putting out bad data that really hindered development. At the end of the season, Red Bull and Mclaren were well in to their stride, finishing the year 8 tenths ahead. Ferrari now have just 2 months to close that gap by evolving the F2012, using a wind tunnel in a different country. And then they've got to develop that evolution through the whole of 2013. Red Bull and Mclaren certainly won't be sleeping this winter. Perhaps Ferrari's best opportunity might come in getting a handle on the new tyres before anyone else.
Yeah, I thnk Ferrari 'can' win it, but as a betting man, I won't be putting my house on it.