Electric Cars - The Future of Consumer Motoring?

[jonelsorel]

Politically imposed future, yep, stemming from the same corporate greed. If CO2, considered food by everything that has leaves, has become the new devil, let's see how it measures up.

According to the authors of the report, the production of lithium-ion batteries for light electric vehicles releases on average 150-200 kilos of carbon dioxide equivalents per kilowatt-hour battery. One of the smallest electric cars on the market, Nissan Leaf, uses batteries of approx. 30 kWh; many new models have batteries of 60 and 100 kWh. An electric car with a 100kWh battery has thus emitted 15-20 tons of carbon dioxide even before the vehicle ignition is turned on.

This study is from Sweden, one very electric car friendly country. More from Sweden:

An increase in government grants sent sales of electric cars surging by 253% in the first five months this year, but the rally could be over before it’s really started. Demand for electricity in Stockholm and other cities is outgrowing capacity in local grids, forcing new charging networks to compete with other projects from housing to subway lines to get hooked up.

Who would've thought?

Mining and processing the lithium, cobalt and manganese used for batteries consume a great deal of energy. A Tesla Model 3 battery, for example, represents between 11 and 15 tonnes of CO2. Given a lifetime of 10 years and an annual travel distance of 15,000 kilometres, this translates into 73 to 98 grams of CO2 per kilometre, scientists Christoph Buchal, Hans-Dieter Karl and Hans-Werner Sinn noted in their study.

10 years?

The CO2 given off to produce the electricity that powers such vehicles also needs to be factored in, they say. When all these factors are considered, each Tesla emits 156 to 180 grams of CO2 per kilometre, which is more than a comparable diesel vehicle produced by the German company Mercedes, for example.

***

I've worked for close to a decade for one of the biggest car producers and can vouch for patents being kept under wraps when the decision to kill diesel development came.

Articles cited (no blogs, unfortunately):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/the-dirt-on-clean-electric-cars

https://www.thegwpf.com/electric-vehicles-emit-more-co2-than-diesel-ones-german-study-shows/

https://www.ivl.se/english/startpag...print-of-electric-car-battery-production.html

 

[Turk]

I'm completely sold on the electric take over, as soon as electric have good range and are easy to charge they've killed ICE. Electric is superior in every way but noise and most peoples cars don't sound all that impressive anyway.

The big issue with Wind and Solar power is the exact same as electric cars, storage.

Wind and Solar are peaky and unreliable.

The problem I have with wind and solar is that it uses up to much land. There's the fact it's piss poor too but I really hate the fact it uses up so much land, we already use too much land and our solution to a crisis is to destroy more natural environments with a technology that won't work.

Nuclear is the only viable option and humanity needs to stop falling prey to scare tactics and vote with our heads.

Electrics are still a more expensive option and that will be the case for a few more years.

I got the impressions from some of these E-car reveals that they are planning to price competitively. The prices are fairly reasonable considering it's new tech.

I think now that the big boys are in the game and competing with each other things are going to speed up a lot. They know how to manufacture a cheap car at a higher quality level than Tesla. They will almost certainly use the fact they've dumped the most complicated part of the car to slash prices, because slashing prices tends to work especially in a competitive market. I think Tesla is on borrowed time, but I've heard the Tesla companies real goal was to create demand for Tesla batteries, which they've achieved from the looks of things.

The problem now is the electric car is becoming something mundane. Engine power will become somewhat redundant because they can already put a motor in that will decimate ICE so there's really no need to put a lot of money into developing the electric motor, they've already developed the car part, all they need to work on is the cars range.

Any electric car is going to be tempered for a domestic market of people who don't care at all about performance.

 

[Ryan Robbins]

I have a Bachelors degree in Environmental Science, but I have been employed as an Electrician for 23 years at Ford Motor .
Many people have already hit good points in this thread. The transportation industry has.made massive progress towards being more environmentally friendly...modern combustion engines are way more efficient and emit way less harmful pollutants than in the past. Many busses are electric which makes good sense considering their stops and size. Electric vehicles present new challenges, and we must provide power to charge them. In the end the timing of these things is driven primarily by money and consumer demand.
For the "environmentalists"...I ask...Do you carpool? Do you live close to work? Do you combine errand trips? Do you believe in efficient urban planning ie...living close to neighbors and resources etc... Most will answer no...and these things would make a much greater impact immediately at no cost!
I am not playing holier than thou either, I do not do some of these things myself.
I believe electric is the future, but a long way until economically viable for the middle and lower classes.

 

[wombat999]

Well, there have been several 'interesting' posts.
I'm looking long and hard at purchasing a Tesla, a Model X AWD in fact.
We need a new daily driver and both my wife and I are impressed by the 'high end' Tesla.
While it is bloody expensive in Pacific Pesos it will replace two cars, and having driven one as well as attending a Tesla Owners club (yes, there is one in my state!) the running costs appear to offset the sticker price. I've checked out charging points and there are enough in my area and along major arteries in Victoria to suit our purposes. As for the pros and cons of both Solar and Wind power, it really depends on how you look at it.
I live on the coast facing the Southern Ocean, there is almost always 'wind' blowing, and the community around me have funded our very own Wind Turbine, costly but with around 1000+/- contributors (large and not so large) kicking in we've been off the grid for almost 12 months. In addition, most properties have Solar, in our case we have a modest Battery Farm as well.
An EV just looks to be a really sensible proposition from our POV.
I'm still keeping the 46 Y/O 911 just the same, it has a negligible Carbon Footprint!
The trouble with consumers in Australia is their appetite for big gas sucking trucks and SUV monstrosities, WTF anyone needs a Hemi RAM with a huge thirst for A$1.50 per liter (and upwards) or an equally hungry SUV (Simply Useless Vehicle) to use as an Urban driver is lost on me.
So yes, my considered opinion is the 'Right' type of EV is probably the 'Right' form of general transport for me.
And my BMW loving wife.........

And a PS: Our Wind Turbine sits on a high ridge facing the Southern Ocean, with roughly a 5K uninhabited radius of land around it, no problems for any residents.

 

[RCHeliguy]

I feel like there is a different between caring about the environment and being called an "environmentalist". Just like there is a difference between enjoying music and being an "audiophile". There are now a lot of bad things associated with each of those quoted titles.

I'm an engineer ( not environmental ), I work from home and have only traveled for work a couple weeks in the last decade. My home has high efficiency HVAC systems, LED lighting, high efficiency refrigerators, on demand tankless water heater, induction stove top is well insulated and has a 45 year roof on it. I recycle and do other things to try to do my part.

I care about the environment, but I don't get preachy about it and I realize that the best way to save the planet would be to thin the herds of people. I feel like we are living in a real life version of Idiocracy these days.

 

[Nevini]

Simply not enough rare earth metals to support the number of cars needed.

 

[Ryno917]

I started responding directly to several posts, but I'm not going to bother. I'll just leave a few things here, with the caveat that I, too, love driving, I love motorsport, I love the sound of a good ICE, etc etc. These points here are all fact.

- Many, many studies have been done comparing the environmental footprint of ICEs with electrics. Overall, an 'average' electric car takes about 4-6 years to break even with an 'average' ICE, environmentally speaking, when driven an 'average' yearly distance in a US state with a dirty electrical grid (read: coal powered). After that they're more environmentally friendly than ICEs. It's not the margin the gung-ho electric advocates would have you believe, but it's there, it's real and it's substantial enough to warrant. This rough figure includes all mining of raw heavy metals for batteries; it includes everything in the production of the vehicle plus the running of said vehicle for the timespan. This is what the evidence says. Anyone who thinks differently is simply denying the facts (read: your "opnion" is, in fact, wrong. Yes, opinions can be wrong)
- Everyone making statements based on electric's future from the standpoint of an enthusiast is completely missing the point: We enthusiasts are a small minority. That's why the manual transmission is dying. That's why sports car are almost all dead. The only reason supercars are enjoying life right now is because of the super-rich who don't know/care about actual performance but want a statement piece - they basically never properly use those cars, even on track days they get driven at 5/10s. Enthusiasts mean essentially nothing in the greater automotive market, so your "opinion" that we will be the death knell of electrics is farcical at best. We do not matter to the companies' bottom line, period.
- Range anxiety is stupid for the vast majority of people. Most people drive less than 100 miles a day. The only "issue" with current electric cars in this vein becomes road trips; for which there are many other options. If you had an electric car, the money you save in powering it (and maintenance!) could probably pay for a rental with cash to spare.
- In the Western World Electric cars are only more expensive if you consider the vehicle cost in isolation. Factor in running costs and they are cheaper. This can change in areas with limited access to electricity, obviously, or less developed nations, but for the majority of people using this forum that is not a problem; if your electricity was that expensive you wouldn't spend time playing racing sims. Unit for unit, electricity is more expensive than gasoline (in most of the world, anyways), but electric cars are exponentially more efficient than ICEs and therefore require vastly lower amounts of potential energy to be input, giving you a massive savings in powering the vehicle. This is fact, as well, confirmed by numerous studies.
- Carbon-neutral fuels for ICEs exist. The company has received funding from Chevron and other oil companies, too, and is currently trying to get to an industrial scale with its carbon recapture technology. I hope that soon turns into industrial-scale carbon recaptured fuel production available at the pump. Even if electric does completely take over, it'll still take decades for a full changeover in rolling stock on our roads, and this tech could eliminate ongoing emissions for ICEs in the meantime; and, bonus, it'll sound exactly the same as the dinosaur-based sludge we're using now for those that think cars still sound good.
- Climate change is not a problem to be solved (entirely, anyways) by technology. Electric cars are not going to save the planet, but they could help a bit. The real issue is over-consumption. We just demand too much. Regardless of the vehicle of choice. Same goes for hemp-based paper, or recycling, etc etc. Stop buying so much stuff, that's the best thing you can do. Absolutely do not go out and lease a car for two years and then switch to something else. Even if you go electric, you're still being a tool; environmentally speaking. There's a reason the phrase "reduce, reuse, recycle" is in the order it is.
- Tesla's terrible build quality is not a knock against electric cars, it's a knock against Tesla as a brand. It's their crappy quality control, it has nothing to do with it being an electric car. Oh yea, their paint finish is abysmal, too. My parking neighbor has a model 3 and at first I thought it had been spray-bombed it was so bad.
- On balance, the rare-Earth metals in batteries get compensated by the vastly more efficient nature of electric cars. But is there enough to go around? What will happen when electric cars, with these materials, become the norm? I haven't seen anything scientific addressing this point directly.


Now, driving experience from the perspective of an enthusiast. For the sake of argument here, I'm going to do a general "modern" to "modern" comparison. A classic car is a more desirable experience, bar none, from an enthusiast standpoint. 100% agree. But that's not a relevant comparison (and, frankly, serves to kill any performance-based argument really), for obvious reasons. So, comparing a modern electric to a modern ICE:
- Sound: The loss of the ICE rumble. Well, frankly, modern cars sound like crap. They do. Every single modern car produces a manicured exhaust note, and they all sound terrible. There, I said it. This is a moot argument.
- Performance: Electric offers 100% torque, all the time. Even a modest electric is quicker off the line than most ICEs. Loses a bit at higher speeds, but most of us can't get there, anyways, due to 'pansying out,' lack of straight roads and unwillingness to break the law that much. This doesn't bother me one bit since I like the twisty bits, anyways, and straight roads are boring as hell. In this situation, from a pure numbers-on-paper performance standpoint, electric wins. If you're highway blasting, sure, an ICE might be quicker sometimes, but that's so irrelevant, anyways. Straight lines are for people who can't drive.
- Transmission: A manual is arguably the most fun part of any fun car. Score one for the ICE - except, not really. The manual is a dying breed, so it won't be long before this is a moot point, too. Brings a tear to my eye, but it's true: see my previous point about us enthusiasts being a small minority.
- Weight: Score one for the ICE here. Apples to Apples, the ICE car will be lighter, probably. Who knows where battery tech will be in 15 years, but for now this is the case. I like lightness, as any self-respecting enthusiast should. I am a fan, after all, of the twisty bits.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion from that.

Honestly, for me? If Polestar made an all-electric version of a Subaru BRZ (meaning, rear-drive, the same size/proportion, as light as possible, and styled like a Polestar), that would be my next car. 100%. Probably won't happen, but that's what I want for a modern vehicle. In my dream garage, I'd park it right next to my 2017 Subaru BRZ and 1972 DeTomasso Pantera.

Point being: You can be a car enthusiast and like both options, and understand the advantages and drawbacks to both. It's not black and white.

 

[UMC 22]

I don't think electric cars are anywhere near becoming the "norm", at least, not in this country.

The infrastructure simply isn't there for a start, with barely any public charge points available anywhere. Secondly, the range of current tech cars if much, much too short. You can't even take one on a decent hiking trip without some way of topping it up somewhere, so they're practically useless for anything other than local commuting.

Finally, the average person does not even have the ability to charge their car at home. It's all very well for those that have a garage with a power supply, but what about the rest of us? Even those with a driveway would need to run a cable through a wall or open window, and those who park on the street (80% of people) have no chance at all.

Electric is clearly the future, but that future is way off yet, regardless of what dumb-arsed, out of touch politicians may say.

 

[MarkR]

Enjoyed the article thanks @Paul Glover. We've just been through this very car-buying dilemma. Long story short, we reached the conclusion it's not quite time yet for the switch to an EV.

We borrowed and used on our real routes most of the sub £40k EV's (Kona, Leaf, i3, eGolf, Zoe) currently available, only one (Hyundai Kona Electric) got anywhere near the claimed range, in hilly Wales, and then bought a BMW plug in hybrid with a 40% list price discount, which does exactly as claimed, instead. All the EV's we tried poor motorway range unless you are the type happy to crawl along with the trucks (unlikely that's many of us on RD!) We would have bought either the Kia or Hyundai EV with realistic 270 mile range (240 or less on motorway) but the waiting list was over a year with no guarantee of the delivery date and no chance of a discount on what I see as steep list prices for these brands.

So I know this article is about the pure EV's but here is why we went for the plug-in hybrid instead:

I think it all depends on lifestyle and car usage. We realised that a plug-in hybrid would easily cover the daily school run and errands without recharging and no range anxiety or charging woes on longer journeys. If we need a bit more electric range, even on the wall socket, it's less than 3 hours for a full 21 miles of electric range. I don't think you mentioned it but offroad or garage charging is also pretty much essential to own one of these vehicles (and the saving of a full EV has to also recoup the £1500+ for the fastest chargers if you want one of those too). The electric range in the BMW is fully adaptive to how it is being driven, for us that's realistically 21 miles on urban roads dropping to 16 miles if a combination of urban and faster 60/70 mph roads are used (that's with the AC or heater being used normally too). With the BMW eDrive system the car can be used in electric-only 'Max eDrive' by choice. We've sometimes run for over 3 weeks without using any petrol at all, a recharge from empty for 21 miles costs about £1.20. Regenerative braking works well too, often adding a couple of extra miles of range.

I enjoy driving the car on the battery alone, it's eerie at first having nothing other than tyre noise, but I soon got used to it. The Leaf and Kona Electric both drove better than expected, the i3 is genuinely good to drive too, if only if had better range and a lower price. For us, though the drive in the BMW hybrids was even better, the instant shove of the electric motor and the flexibility of petrol power and range when needed. The plug-in hybrid is more than fast enough to keep up with the traffic in full electric mode too. I'm also impressed with the way the engine kicks in, it's imperceptible, only the rev counter springing to life gives it away. The on-screen display showing which drive is in use is always a popular gimmick too. Sport mode is fun for the occasional use too and the on-screen dials changing to a torque and BHP meter makes me chuckle.

The BMW connected app is superb and deserves a mention of its own, by far the best of all those we saw. It gives a detailed breakdown of electric range and charging time along with feedback on how the car is being driven. The ability to preheat or cool the car while it is connected to power adds a little extra range too. Being able to send destinations the sat nav and use apps on screen are useful too.

If you're thinking of buying a new car it's well worth booking the extended test drives most of the EV dealers are offering (UK) to see if they suit you and the driving you do. Not yet was our conclusion.

 

[BrunoBæ]

If you add millions of electric cars to the grid, then i can see that being even more of a problem, even considering strategies like charging all the cars overnight, to avoid the storage problem of most "clean" electric generated energy.

What some people fail to realize is that Fuel Cell cars are electric cars. They just have a 2 stage electric system that stores energy as H2 and requires they go to a gas station to refill vs having a larger battery that is topped off every night in your garage.

Both of you.
If you are adressing me then it would be a bit more constructive if you read the post(s) you are adressing.
Im absolutely not advocating fuel cell/electric cars!!
Im more a believer in cars who directly "burn" hydrogen.
OK?
And yes I know that the car manufactures dont want to support this type of fuel - probably because there is more profit getting customers to buy a complete new EV car.
Changing a petrol engine to burn hydrogen is very inexpensive (about $100-$300) + the cost of a safe hydrogen container in the car.
In as example Sweden there is some engineers driving around in their DIY modified hydrogen cars.
No sweat - they say.
Only water steam in the exaust

CatsAreTheWorstDogs: The only minor problem with these "Directly Burning Hydrogen Cars" could be that they are not completely CO2 neutrals. But compared to petrol burning cars then ....

 

[RCHeliguy]

Manufacturers have ZERO to do with why H2 as a fuel source is a failed proposition. It's just too wasteful to produce. People don't want to spend twice as much to reach a destination vs a full electric and that's using a Fuel cell which is reasonably efficient. Burning H2 would reduce efficiency even more.

Key point: It doesn't matter how easy it is to convert over to H2 if H2 costs you a pile more than the fuel you were using before you converted. We are living in a cheap oil forever age now that we have plentiful reserves and a growth in demand that is about to turn negative.

Electric cars will be cheaper to produce and cheaper to operate and go further for your money than a car burning H2 will.

 

[David Wright]

, and those who park on the street (80% of people) have no chance at all.

According to the RAC, 25% of UK cars are parked on the street in the evening.

The future of charging seems to be rapid chargers and these are unlikely to be at your home.

 

[RCHeliguy]

The future of charging seems to be rapid chargers and these are unlikely to be at your home.

Where do you get that from? Everything I've read shows most people charging overnight during off peak hours and only using rapid chargers when making long distance trips.

FYI, I was looking at having 240V 100A service added to my garage, but that was also to run larger power tools

 

[BrunoBæ]

Manufacturers have ZERO to do with why H2 as a fuel source is a failed proposition. It's just too wasteful to produce. People don't want to spend twice as much to reach a destination vs a full electric and that's using a Fuel cell which is reasonably efficient. Burning H2 would reduce efficiency even more.

I think we have a problem with facts here
If Hydrogen is so extreeeemely expensive to produce then its a bit strange that both in Norway, Sweden and Denmark there have existed hydrogen tank stations since about 2012.
This one is from Denmark - and it is not PhotoShopped

 

[RCHeliguy]

I think we have a problem with facts here
If Hydrogen is so extreeeemely expensive to produce then its a bit strange that both in Norway, Sweden and Denmark there have existed hydrogen tank stations since about 2012.
This one is from Denmark - and it is not PhotoShopped
View attachment 324964

They are not alone and that is hardly the issue.

I made snow balls last winter, but that doesn't mean we don't have global warming.

Do you have any idea what H2 costs and how far a vehicle can go on that H2 ?

That's what this is about, not whether H2 is available in limited markets.

 

[MarkR]

Where do you get that from? Everything I've read shows most people charging overnight during off peak hours and only using rapid chargers when making long distance trips.

That's true at the moment but also one of those correlation does not imply causation problems. At the moment most of the people who have EVs are also likely to have offroad/garage parking for charging. For mass adoption of EVs other systems will be needed.

Not really a debate for RD but there is another question of how much EVs will further drive social exclusion if only the rich with their own charging point(s) can afford them. I'm guessing that's why VW has the tagline 'This is for all of us' for the ID range, except it isn't when the basic shortest range cars are rumoured to be over £27k!

 

[RCHeliguy]

Not really a debate for RD but there is another question of how much EVs will further drive social exclusion if only the rich with their own charging point(s) can afford them. I'm guessing that's why VW has the tagline 'This is for all of us' for the ID range, except it isn't when the basic shortest range cars are rumoured to be over £27k!

Actually that one is simple.
1. First the price of electric cars is going to drop quite a bit.
2. Automated driving Uber style fleets that you summon with a smartphone app will be the way many get around and the cost of that will drop enough that many will consider not owning a car at all.

 

[Paul Glover]

 

[Richard Wilks]

Actually that one is simple.
1. First the price of electric cars is going to drop quite a bit.
2. Automated driving Uber style fleets that you summon with a smartphone app will be the way many get around and the cost of that will drop enough that many will consider not owning a car at all.

Those two points seem directly from the Elon Musk quotes to keep investors happy:

1. Electric cars are expensive because batteries are expensive to mine and produce. It has nothing to do with economies of scale, its the raw materials and processing them that is expensive. Nissan produced many leafs, that didnt made them cheaper for them to produce them.

2. Fully Automated vehicles going around like self driven taxis are years, if not decades away, not only because of technology, but also because of legal and practical considerations.

You can already go anywhere without owning a car. Take a bus.

 

[RCHeliguy]

Those two points seem directly from the Elon Musk quotes to keep investors happy:

1. Electric cars are expensive because batteries are expensive to mine and produce. It has nothing to do with economies of scale, its the raw materials and processing them that is expensive. Nissan produced many leafs, that didnt made them cheaper for them to produce them.

2. Fully Automated vehicles going around like self driven taxis are years, if not decades away, not only because of technology, but also because of legal and practical considerations.

You can already go anywhere without owning a car. Take a bus.

1. There are a number of battery technologies that are currently in a race to scale up for mass production that either have a duty cycle longer than a person normally lives, or that are made out out inexpensive materials. For example carbon nanotubes while likely not coming anytime soon because of manufacturing issues is effectively made from carbon which is plentiful and dirt cheap. That is just an example showing how electric storage doesn't have to involve Lithium or Cadmium etc.. Granted what I've seen more of recently are hybrid batteries that use small amounts of currently expensive to produce nano-tubes in the anodes of existing battery tech to extend their duty cycle.

2. Fully automated buses are already in use in New Mexico. Tesla has self driving technology waiting for the government to allow it to work. They were hoping to release it at the end of this year, but are currently caught up in red tape. The concept was that when you are not using your car, that it could be out making fairs to help pay for itself. Automated driving vehicles are already here and will be out in force in the near future.